India has emerged as Nepal’s top inbound tourist market in February, the tourism authority here said on Saturday, as the key sector in the Himalayan nation is gradually witnessing recovery from the onslaught of the coronavirus pandemic. Of the total 97,426 tourists arriving in the country by air route last month, 25,578 were from India, followed by China with 9,180 and the US with 9,089 visitors, according to data published by the Nepal Tourism Board (NTB).
Thailand is in fourth place with 4,799 inbound visitors, while the UK and Bangladesh ranked fifth and sixth in the list with 4,571 and 4,099 tourists respectively.
According to NTB Director Mani Lamichhane, though the data showed over 25,000 Indians visiting Nepal in February, the actual number is much higher as a large number of tourists from India visited the country via land route.
In January, Nepal received 18,041 visitors from India.
The number of tourists arriving via air route in Nepal in February is 33 per cent up from February 2023, which witnessed arrival of 73,255 visitors. As compared to 2019, the pre-Covid 19 period, it was 95.12 per cent recovery. The number of tourists arrival in Nepal in February 2019 was 1,02,423, the NTB said.
Nepal’s tourism sector, which is badly affected by COVID-19, is expected to revive in 2024, and the February data is a positive indication, NTB Director Lamichhane said.
As the tourism season in Nepal starts after March, the number of visitors will significantly increase from next month, he said.
In terms of overall tourist numbers, Indonesia welcomed a staggering 11.67 million visitors in 2023, almost double the number in 2022. Bali alone received 5.23 million visitors, accounting for nearly half of Indonesia’s total tourism arrivals. To boost arrivals from India, plans for Vistara direct flights from Bombay and strengthening Delhi departures are in the pipeline.
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By the end of this year, the tourist arrivals in South Asia are expected to return to the levels seen in 2019, indicating a notably rapid recovery compared to other sub-regions. Additionally, under both mild and severe scenarios, it is projected that by the end of 2024, South Asia will attract 25 million and 60 million visitors, respectively, signifying a substantial influx of tourists to the region. This surge into the region is anticipated to benefit India’s inbound tourism significantly, as per Prof Haiyan Song, Research Head at PATA, and Dean of Hospitality and Tourism at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. The Tourism Forecast and Trends analysis presented by the professor showed that the inbound tourism to India experienced a downturn in 2021 due to various factors. However, it is anticipated to fully rebound and reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year, marking 104.2 per cent recovery in the medium scenario. The international visitor arrivals (IVAs) are expected to exceed the pre pandemic level in 2026 by 58.5 per cent and 20.5 per cent in mild and medium scenarios, respectively.
“India has emerged as the fastest recovering destination, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by over 58 per cent by 2026. This robust growth trajectory underscores the positive outlook for India’s tourism sector in the forecast period. Looking ahead, the recovery is anticipated to be driven significantly by initiatives from the supply side, notably the Union Budget 2023, which aimed at enhancing infrastructure. Additionally, the Incredible India branding initiative, including the possible launch of Incredible India 3.0 campaign, is expected to have a substantial impact on supply, attracting tourists from various source markets to India,” he added.
Also, as shared by Song, India will receive 17 and 13 million IVAs in 2026 in the mild and medium scenarios, respectively. Despite currently ranking 16th in international arrivals in the Asia Pacific region, India’s attractiveness to tourists is expected to improve, said Song.
Additionally, India is projected to rise to 14 markets by 2036, driven by faster economic growth, making the country more attractive for both tourists and investors.
China anticipated to emerge as significant source market for India
The major source markets for India currently include Bangladesh, the USA, the UK, with projections indicating significant growth from other markets by 2026, such as Malaysia. Comparing the pre-COVID-19 source market rankings of 2019 with the projections for 2026, there are notable changes, with Australia dropping down the ranks while China and Malaysia ascend.
Song shared that China is anticipated to emerge as a significant source market for India in the coming years, primarily due to the forecasted GDP growth of around five to six per cent per annum as per a report. “Visitor arrivals from China will be 429 thousand by 2026 (126.4 per cent of the 2019 levels under the medium scenario). Severe scenarios will see slower recovery in 2026 (59.7 per cent, given geopolitical and macro-economic concerns. Notably, the simplified visa process would help to attract more Chinese visitors,” shared Song.
Visitor arrivals from Bangladesh to India are also expected to surpass 2019 levels by 111.8 per cent by 2023, with visa-free access likely enhancing this trend. The USA is expected to contribute around 1.7 million visitors to India by the end of June, with American tourists known for their high spending. Factors driving this include the ongoing economic recovery and consumer confidence in the US.
“To further attract tourists from the US and other developed countries, India should focus on promoting diverse tourism products, especially luxury medical tourism, leveraging the comparatively lower costs of medical treatments in India,” suggested Song.
As for visitors from the UK, around 1.1 million arrivals are anticipated by the end of 2026. In the same period, visitor arrivals from Australia will be 407.3 thousand recording an increase of 110.9 per cent of 2019 level. Visitor arrivals from Australia will outperform the 2019 level by 24.9 per cent this year under the mild scenario.
Similarly, Canada IVAs recovery rate will be 138.3 per cent in 2024 and 406.6 thousand visitors from Canada will visit the country by the end of 2026, hitting 115.6 per cent of 2019 level. Malaysia, another strong market for India, will see high recovery rates in the mild scenario, shared Song, adding that about 483.7 thousand visitors from Malaysia will be recorded by the end of 2026.
India holds significant importance for Malaysia, serving as its fifth largest source of tourists. In 2023, Malaysia welcomed 17.8 million tourist arrivals, with 587,703 originating from India. The robust air connectivity between the two countries, with 181 weekly flights offering 33,851 seats, further facilitates travel and strengthens bilateral ties between both nations.
Indonesia and Canada predicted to become more popular
On the outbound front, the market of India is generally stable during the forecast period as per Song. Sharing further, he stated that the top destinations for Indian tourists in 2026 include Thailand, the USA, Singapore, China and Indonesia. Out of these, Indonesia and Canada are predicted to become more popular, with their rankings increased by 1 and 3 places from 2019 to 2026, respectively. Speaking about India’s tourism potential, Song shared that India is known by its geographical diversity and rich cultural heritage, which also emerged as a focal point of the research done for PATA. Despite this inherent allure, global awareness of India’s cultural depth remains uneven across key source markets, presenting untapped opportunities for targeted promotion and marketing initiatives.
Song also advocated for proactive measures and strategic investments, deeming them essential for India to capitalise on its tourism potential and emerge as a premier global destination in both traditional and new markets.
South Asia poised to experience the swiftest recovery among sub-regions
The presentation made by Song also highlighted the rapid recovery of South Asia, with the region leading in impact on the tourism economy. The recovery rates in South Asia outpaced those of Southeast Asia and the Asia Pacific region as a whole as per the tourism monitoring report. Looking ahead to 2026, South Asia is poised to experience the swiftest recovery among sub-regions, with a projected growth rate of 1.2 per cent, shared Song.
“By the conclusion of this year, tourist arrivals in South Asia are expected to return to the levels seen in 2019, indicating a notably rapid recovery compared to other sub-regions. Additionally, under both mild and severe scenarios, it is projected that by the end of 2024, South Asia will attract 25 million and 60 million visitors, respectively, signifying a substantial influx of tourists to the region,” he shared.
A closer look at sub-regions revealed intriguing dynamics. Northeast Asia held the highest market share in 2019, while South Asia, including India, accounted for a relatively small share. However, projections indicated a significant increase in South Asia’s market share by 2026, primarily fueled by a surge in arrivals to India.
After Covid-19, economic growth in many major source markets in the Asia Pacific region has been severely impacted, recalled Song. Consequently, the number of tourists traveling from Europe to India and other parts of Asia Pacific has been limited. Factors such as high inflation in Europe and the United States have led to significantly increased travel costs, sometimes double or even triple the pre-pandemic levels, deterring international travel. Song said that these economic challenges have played a significant role in dampening international tourism demand.
To this, Song emphasised the critical role of various factors such as economic conditions, digital transformation, consumer confidence, and supply chain resilience in driving future tourism recovery. Additionally, supportive visa policies will remain a critical driver for the tourism recovery within the APAC region, which is expected to see total arrivals going up to 133.35 per cent in a mild scenario by 2026.
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The ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023, hosted in India, not only thrilled cricket enthusiasts but also catalyzed a substantial influx of international tourists, resulting in a remarkable 12.5 per cent increase in contactless cross-border transactions, according to a recent report by Visa, the global digital payments player.
While the World Cup matches were the primary draw, international visitors seized the opportunity to explore India’s rich culture and tourist destinations extensively. Cities like Jaipur, Agra, Goa, Varanasi, and Udaipur emerged as top favorites among travelers.
Spending Patterns
During their stay in India, international travellers directed their spending predominantly towards clothing and accessories, restaurants, and retail goods.
A notable revelation was the surge in contactless transactions, constituting 36 per cent of cross-border transactions. This marked a substantial increase, almost double the rate of domestic contactless transactions during the same period.
The ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup, a global spectacle, triggered a surge in travel to India, echoing the impact of major sporting and cultural events worldwide. Earlier instances, such as the UEFA Final in Istanbul and Taylor Swift tours, also witnessed a profound influence on travel patterns and expenditures.
The 46-day World Cup period witnessed a significant rise in international visitors from participating and non-participating nations. Top venues like Ahmedabad, Mumbai, and Kolkata experienced surges in airfare prices ranging from 30 per cent to 60 per cent. According to Skyscanner’s Travel in Focus Report, 75 per cent of respondents expressed a willingness to expand their travel budgets to witness live cricket matches.
Coinciding with the festive season of Diwali, the World Cup’s timeline prompted international visitors to extend their travel itineraries beyond match venues. Popular destinations included Jaipur, Agra, Goa, Varanasi, and Udaipur. Among the participating nations, England, Australia, South Africa, and Bangladesh emerged as the significant contributors to expenditures during the World Cup matches in India.
Asia and the Pacific lagged behind, reaching only 62 per cent of pre-pandemic levels during this period due to a slower reopening to international travel. Notably, South Asia displayed a remarkable recovery of 95 per cent, while North-East Asia trailed at approximately 50 per cent, illustrating mixed performances among subregions.
Visa, renowned for its digital payment solutions, provided valuable insights into payment trends during the ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2023. The data revealed a substantial 12.5 per cent growth in contactless cross-border transactions compared to July 2023, pre-festive season. A noteworthy statistic was that 36 per cent of cross-border transactions in India were contactless, indicating a significant shift in payment preferences.
Sushmit Nath, Head of Visa Consulting & Analytics – India and South Asia, shared his perspective on the findings, stating, “The high voltage Men’s Cricket World Cup, an ongoing festive season and Diwali have led to a spike in international travel to India, consequently having a positive effect on international as well as domestic consumer spends.”
The World Cup not only showcased India as a cricketing destination but also underscored the country’s appeal as a cultural and tourist hotspot, with Visa’s data providing a nuanced understanding of the evolving dynamics in consumer behavior and payments.
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The Ministry of Tourism, Government of India, participated in this year’s ITB Asia exhibition, held in Singapore from October 25 to October 27, putting special emphasis on inbound and sustainable tourism as it strives to position India as a premier international destination.
According to the Ministry, the primary objective was to promote inbound tourism to India globally, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, under the banner of ‘Incredible India! Visit India Year 2023.’
Singapore and the Southeast Asia region are of paramount importance for India, especially for Buddhist tourism, owing to the connectivity between the two regions, with approximately 150 flights operating per week. This year has been designated as ‘Visit India Year 2023’, with a focus on India’s positioning in key international markets.
The Ministry of Tourism has been particularly pushing sustainable tourism in the country and now, it is looking to spread the messaging to the world. Ahead of India’s recently concluded G20 Presidency, the country has launched a national strategy for sustainable tourism aimed at making the Indian tourism sector more resilient, inclusive, carbon-neutral, and resource-efficient, all while safeguarding natural and cultural resources.
The strategy encompasses seven key pillars that encompass environmental, economic, and socio-cultural sustainability, biodiversity conservation, and creating awareness through skill development and entrepreneurship, which were also a key of G20 discussions.
The Mcleodganj-Bhagsunag-Tau Chaola road and Hiru Dasalan-Tamru Chaola road are set to be constructed near Dharamshala. Besides the 11 eco-tourism sites earmarked, a multitude of other projects is in the pipeline, including an international-level convention center in Dharamshala, a Zoological Park in Bankhandi, an Old Age Wellness Resort, a tourism village, Kangra Heliport, among others.
Its Travel for LiFE program has also been designed to instigate significant behavioural change among tourists and tourism businesses. The Ministry of Tourism’s participation at the exhibition especially focused on capturing the region’s attention towards India’s thematic products. These include adventure, wellness, Himalayas, eco-tourism, sustainable tourism, and exotic wildlife. The Incredible India pavilion at the event was inaugurated by Shilpak Ambule, the High Commissioner of India to Singapore.
The India contingent this year included several Destination Management Companies (DMCs), the Indian Railways Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) and the Hyderabad International Convention Centre.
Separately, the State Government of Goa, as well as UT administrations of Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Puducherry, participated to exhibit their respective tourism offerings.
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In the midst of an escalating diplomatic standoff between India and Canada, the recent suspension of visa services by the Indian government for Canadian citizens is poised to have significant ramifications on inbound tourism to India, particularly as the tourist season approaches.
As the festive tourist season approaches in India, the impact of this visa suspension on inbound tourism remains a focal point, and all stakeholders are keenly observing how the situation evolves in the coming days. The travel and tourism industry, which has been steadily recovering from the effects of the global pandemic, is now faced with another challenge, as the suspension of visa services adds uncertainty to the upcoming tourist season.
Since Canada is a major source market of foreign tourists for India, the Indian tourism industry feels a lot of existing bookings are going to get cancelled or rescheduled. Canada has consistently been one of the leading sources of tourists to India. In 2021, approximately 80,000 Canadian tourists travelled to India, as per data from India’s Bureau of Immigration.
The suspension of visa services encompasses all Canadian nationals planning to visit India who do not possess valid visas, including tourists, students, business travellers, and others. Furthermore, this suspension extends to Canadians located in third countries who intend to apply for an Indian visa, adding to the complexity of the situation.
Commenting on the situation, Jyoti Mayal, Vice Chairperson, FAITH and President, Travel Agents Association of India (TAAI), said that people are going to become very anxious about the entire situation because they have all planned the trips between India and Canada.
“The move is going to affect tourism a lot. There are a lot of bookings that are already been done. A lot of people’s passports are lying in the embassies. There will be a lot of cancellations coming through. People are going to become very anxious about the entire situation because they have all planned the trips, and it will impact students as well with the presence of a large Indian diaspora in Canada. Parents are going to panic, so I think there’s going to be a lot of turmoil for the next many days till the time there’s a resolution or a solution provided,” she said.
A noteworthy aspect of this development is the burgeoning number of Indians travelling to Canada, especially for educational purposes. Canadian universities have witnessed a steady influx of Indian students, with post-graduate studies being particularly favoured. In 2022, Indians constituted a substantial 40 per cent of the total international students studying in Canada.
In a press conference, Arindam Bagchi, Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), informed that the government is closely monitoring the situation and will be reviewing the situation on a regular basis. “Those in Canada who possess valid visas to India or those who have OCIs are free to travel to India,” he added.
The Indian student population in Canada on study visas has surged beyond the 3-lakh mark, underscoring the robust educational ties between the two countries. However, the visa suspension does not affect individuals who already possess a valid Indian visa or hold an Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) card.
On the other hand, Rajiv Mehra, President, Indian Association of Tour Operators (IATO) said that the visa suspension will adversely affect the foreign tourist arrival in the country as Canada is an crucial tourist source market for India.
“There is no clarity whether travel between both countries will also be suspended after the visa suspension. Booking will get impacted however we are waiting for more clarity on the issue. For those planning travel to India, it would adversely impact the foreign tourist arrival as Canada is a major source market for us,” he mentioned.
Crucially, the duration of the visa suspension remains uncertain, contingent on the resolution of the diplomatic impasse between India and Canada. No official announcement has been made regarding the timeline for the resumption of visa services.
Additionally, amidst the diplomatic discord, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has urged Indian students residing in Canada to register with the High Commission of India or Consulates General of India through the #MADAD portal. This directive seeks to ensure the welfare and safety of Indian students in light of the ongoing tensions between the two nations.
The escalating diplomatic row between India and Canada has left many families in Punjab anxious. Canada is one of the preferred countries for people from Punjab to study and settle down. The Indian government’s latest move to suspend visa services in Canada has also upset the plans of Canadian citizens who wish to visit their native places in Punjab.
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